A new iPhone for $200. Under $200 for 1T of storage. AT&T rolling out essentially free wifi at Starbucks, replacing T-Mobile's $10/day program.
All this in an inflationary, low growth environment that has many consumers cutting discretionary spending to pay for increased fuel and food costs. That trend should continue to apply pressure to mobile phone, PC, software and connectivity prices, in spite of some tie-ups.
On the face of things, this might seem to bode ill for the entire tech sector, but a second look may tell a different story.
When the interstate system was commissioned by Eisenhower in 1956, it was considered in part infrastructure for national defense, allowing troops and equipment to rapidly move around the country. But of course, most of us don't think of it in this way - we think of it as our route to work, our road to vacation, or our path to Grandma's house. The interstate, once created, focused and unleashed innovation in so many areas, we don't think about it.
The internet, and more importantly the technology infrastructure of the US, is undergoing a similar progression (forgive me the superhighway comparison). However, the much greater percentage of private enterprises managing, maintaining and developing tech infrastructure has lead to faster development and more innovation.
Now consider again our current situation with the interstate system - we've adapted our lives around cars, trucks and motorcycles, and not just for getting to Grandma's house, but to move goods, to render services, etc. And the difficulty of moving away from the system is legendary at this point - energy independence is a euphemism for somehow insulating ourselves from $5 or $6/gallon gas, and its pernicious effects on related markets like food.
The internet is evolving in a similar way, because we are growing increasingly dependent on it. The flip side of always on is that we are increasingly virtually incapacitated without it. Cell phone battery dead or laptop left at home? How do I get my colleague's phone number? How do I get my map to the airport? How do I book a flight?
There are simple answers to these questions, to be sure. But it underscores the point that our lives are increasingly being laid out around technology. And we all have to admit we don't know exactly how that dependence will affect our lives in the future...
Friday, June 20, 2008
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