Web 3.0

1 Trillion texts in one year in the US.  An average of 261 minutes per month per person globally.

Gone are the phones with attached “briefcase” – the mobile phone has evolved rapidly as usage has increased and costs have dropped.  And the statistics behind the rise of the mobile phone are staggering.

A decade ago, there were fewer than 500m mobile subscriptions, according to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Now there are about 4.6 billion (see chart). Penetration rates have risen steeply everywhere. In rich countries subscriptions outnumber the population. Even in poor countries more than half the inhabitants have gone mobile. Dial a number and the odds are three to one that it will cause a mobile phone, rather than a fixed-line one, to ring somewhere on the planet. (Mobile-phone culture: The Apparatgeist calls, December 30, 2009, The Economist)

Not only has the cell phone become ubiquitous, but, as we’ve said, it is now beginning to rival the PC as a true computing device.  The iPhone, Droid, and NexusOne all retail for about the price of a laptop.  And for good reason.  While they have arguably less functionality, they are *more* functional, because they are truly mobile and, as a consequence, ever present.

With all this firepower, it is not surprising that people of different cultures use the tool in different ways that fit into existing cultural norms.  The full article by the Economist features a really interesting comparison of keitai (in Japan, because of taboos around talking on phones on the train, people graviate to data services), Handy (Germans have shorter calls, too, but for different reasons), and other cell phone cultures.

But, as the article continues, while culture impacts technology use, technology can in the long term change culture.  Delving into the statistics for usage by young people (see prior posts), shows where the trend is going.

eWeek released an article a couple days ago about NexusOne prices – $530 unlocked, $179 with a 2 year contract from T-Mobile.  In short, similar to the iPhone with AT&T, but with a less appealing carrier.

This makes for a perplexing choice for the new year – iPhone, Droid or NexusOne?  While iPhone has been somewhat handicapped by AT&T’s reputation for service (which is not as much of a handicap as claimed), the Droid has been somewhat handicapped by a poor execution of a physical keyboard.

Of course, the Droid, released for Verizon not long ago, is also an Android phone.  But while the price is comparable to the iPhone and NexusOne, the features of the phone are purportedly inferior to both and the carrier superior to both.

So if the NexusOne costs about the same, but uses an inferior network, how do you compare the three?  The reality is that while it may be a toss-up, most iPhone users are quite pleased with the device itself, and probably not really irate about the service.  At least, not irate enough.  Besides, not everyone is going to be at the end of their 2 year contract, or interested in shelling out $500-600 for a new phone.

For the short term, the choice between these three will likely only face off contract or brand new mobile buyers.  But still, are the NexusOne’s features compelling enough for iPhone users to switch?

TechCrunch ran an article on December 12, 2009 about the phone, and here’s another.  You’ll notice that details are surprisingly slim, but that comparisons to HTC phones are strong.  A better question though, is, “Can Google really create a substantially more compelling phone than Apple’s?”  Not a better phone, but one that is obviously better to a brand new, unexperienced user.

Maybe.  But unlikely.   Aesthetically, the phone seems to have few improvements, and Apple has consistently addressed weaknesses and opportunities (video, removable SIM, etc.) in its phone.  This article also asks the interesting question, which will be shortly answered, as to whether any carrier could handle the data intensive smart phone user of the future better than Apple.

Apple has cracked a lot of issues that had plagued the smart phone genre in its infancy, and have a lot of very enthusiastic users.  NexusOne will likely have an uphill climb.